“The cut of almost half in the IPCC’s best estimate of near-term warming between the pre-final and final drafts of its Fifth Assessment Report signals the IPCC’s abandonment of the models.”
RSS Satellite Graph now shows no Global Warming for 17 Years & 4 Months*
*Remote Sensing Systems Satellite Data on Mean Surface Temperature Change: 208 Months September 1996 to December 2013
Press Release from Lord Monckton Foundation.
The Lord Monckton Foundation’s monthly Global Warming Projection Index number for January 2014 is 0.13 Cº. That is how much the IPCC’s latest central projection of global warming over the 9 full years January 2005 to December 2013 has overshot the observed temperature trend. Note that the Index now takes account of the sharp cut by almost half in the IPCC’s best estimate of near-term global warming.
If the 108-month IPCC overshoot were to continue for 100 years, the IPCC’s prediction would exceed the measured trend by 1.5 Cº. Though the IPCC projects that the world should have warmed by 0.12 Cº (1.33 Cº/century) since 2005, the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite datasets shows cooling of 0.01 Cº (0.16 Cº/century). The predicted and actual trends continue visibly to diverge.
The trend in CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa shows a rise of 18 μatm since January 2005, equivalent to 198 μatm/century. On its own, this CO2 increase should have caused a radiative forcing of 0.25 Watts per square meter, or 0.35 W m–2 after including the influence of all other greenhouse gases. Even without temperature feedbacks, according to the IPCC’s methods this forcing should have caused 0.1 Cº warming. Adding in the IPCC’s temperature estimates of temperature feedbacks and of previously-committed global warming should have caused up to 0.3 Cº warming since January 2005. None has occurred.
Lord Monckton said:
“The cut of almost half in the IPCC’s best estimate of near-term warming between the pre-final and final drafts of its Fifth Assessment Report signals its abandonment of the models.”