![]() |
A man feeds the birds in a snow covered Pavilion Gardens in Buxton Photo: ANDREW YATES/AFP/Getty Images |
Peter A. Stott is a climate scientist who leads the Climate Monitoring and Attribution team of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at the Met Office in Exeter, UK. He is an expert on anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change.
He was a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I report, chapter 9, for the AR4 released in 2007 and is an editor of the Journal of Climate.
You
could say that Mr Stott is embedded in the ClimateGate CRU.
In
2010, Roger Pielke Sr. critiqued a paper (link) by Peter Stott and Peter
Thorne:
Erroneous Statement by Peter A. Stott and Peter W. Thorne In Nature titled “How Best To Log Local Temperatures?”
Mr Pielke summarized his critique by closing:
Peter Stott and Peter Thorne have deliberately misled the readership of Nature in order to give the impression that three data analyses corroborate their analyzed trends, while in reality the three surface temperature data sets are closely related.
Mr
Stott is the lead author of a paper recently published in Environmental Research Letters
(link)
Peter Stott et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014024 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014024
Peter Stott et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014024 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014024
The upper end of climate model temperature projections is
inconsistent with past warming
Climate
models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular
scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings
of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten
increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether
model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed.
This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed
greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have
already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first
time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of
future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the
observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower
ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s
(2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively)
than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models
(0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that
for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is
inconsistent with past warming.
Is Mr Stott coming in from the cold or in fact starting to
turn his back on Global Warming Alarmism?