All Scientists are Sceptics ~Professor Bob Carter

Whenever someone asserts that a scientific question is “settled,” they tell me immediately that they don’t understand the first thing about science. Science is never settled. Dr David Deming

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the science of climate change is the lack of any real substance in attempts to justify the hypothesis ~Professor Stewart Franks

A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at:
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at:
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at:

Wednesday, 7 August 2013

Climate Models Are Failing - IPCC Lead Author

Graph: Roy Spencer.
Previously this blog posted -regarding Australian PM Rudd's interview on the Bolt report:

Australian Prime Minister Amazingly Ignorant on Climate Matters (Link)

 One exchange involved IPCC lead author Hans von Storch:
ANDREW BOLT: Another IPCC scientist, Hans von Storch - I’m sure you’ve heard of him, very prominent - has said that there’s been no - essentially no warming for 15 years. In another five years, if there is no more warming, he will have to reconsider the global warming theory. Will you reconsider your adherence to the global warming theory if there is no more warming for another five years?

KEVIN RUDD: There are two sources of authority that we should listen to, because we pay them for their best and considered advice. One is the International Panel of Climate Change scientists - not just-

ANDREW BOLT: I’ve just quoted one.

KEVIN RUDD: Yeah, you’ve just quoted one of 4,000-
Where  did PM Rudd get his mistaken belief of 4000?  Amazingly Ignorant. And does the PM realise that it is not International - but the political InterGOVERNMENTAL?

Andrew Bolt was probably referring to an article that originally appear in the German Newspaper Der Spiegel, June 20, 2013 

Climate experts have long predicted that temperatures would rise in parallel with greenhouse gas emissions. But, for 15 years, they haven't. In a SPIEGEL interview, meteorologist Hans von Storch discusses how this "puzzle" might force scientists to alter what could be "fundamentally wrong" models.
The Managing Editor of Environment & Climate News, James M Taylor has written of the matter -

United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lead author Hans von Storch told Der Spiegel that climate models are having a difficult time replicating the lack of global warming during the past 15 years. 
“So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break," said Storch.
It's the old "models vs data" argument. See Roy Spencer's Graph above (Link

Von Storch says that the models say that it should be much warmer.
"According to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn't happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) -- a value very close to zero," Storch told Der Spiegel. "This is a serious scientific problem that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year.
So, according to Hans von Storch, when will we know that the CAGW hypothesis has failed.
"If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models. A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario. 
James Taylor notes WUWT's Anthony Watt's comment:
“The nature of science is to go where the data tells you to go, not to go where you believe you should, and that is what von Storch is doing as a scientist. Meanwhile, those who go in the direction they believe they should go—or are told to go—are continuing on like lemmings marching to the sea, blissfully unaware that the road of science has a U-turn sign up ahead. The belief-system pileup at the U-turn will be something to behold.”
Wood for trees

The RSS satellite data show no significant warming for Twenty-Three (23) years. Three years past Herr von Storch's 20 year key point.

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