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Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the science of climate change is the lack of any real substance in attempts to justify the hypothesis ~Professor Stewart Franks

A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf

Saturday, 15 June 2013

Australian Warming Exaggerated

Biases in the Australian high quality temperature network.

A peer-reviewed paper by David Stockwell and Kenneth Stewart published in the journal Energy and Environment where the authors conclude that biases “have exaggerated apparent Australian warming.” And when those exaggerations are properly addressed, their analysis suggests that Australia appears to have warmed to a lesser degree over the past century.

The Abstract of the paper can be found at www.multi-science.co.uk:

Abstract

Various reports identify global warming over the last century as around 0.7°C, but warming in Australia at around 0.9°C, suggesting Australia may be warming faster than the rest of the world. This study evaluates potential biases in the High Quality Network (HQN) compiled from 100 rural surface temperature series from 1910 due to: (1) homogeneity adjustments used to correct for changes in location and instrumentation, and (2) the discrimination of urban and rural sites. The approach was to compare the HQN with a new network compiled from raw data using the minimal adjustments necessary to produce contiguous series, called the Minimal Adjustment Network (MAN). The average temperature trend of the MAN stations was 31% lower than the HQN, and by a number of measures, the trend of the Australian MAN is consistent with the global trend. This suggests that biases from these sources have exaggerated apparent Australian warming. Additional problems with the HQN include failure of homogenization procedures to properly identify errors, individual sites adjusted more than the magnitude of putative warming last century, and some sites of such poor quality they should not be used, especially under a "High Quality" banner.

From CO2 Science (Link)

Reference
Stockwell, D.R.B. and Stewart, K. 2012. Biases in the Australian high quality temperature network. Energy and Environment 23: 1273-1294.

What was done
In an effort designed to answer this question, Stockwell and Stewart evaluated "potential biases in the High Quality Network (HQN) compiled from 100 rural surface temperature series from 1910 due to: (1) homogeneity adjustments used to correct for changes in location and instrumentation, and (2) the discrimination of urban and rural sites." More specifically, their approach was "to compare the HQN with a new network compiled from raw data using the minimal adjustments necessary to produce contiguous series, called the Minimal Adjustment Network (MAN)."

What was learned
The two researchers found that "the average temperature trend of the MAN stations was 31% lower than the HQN," and they state that "by a number of measures, the trend of the Australian MAN is consistent with the global trend." Additional problems that they encountered with the HQN database included "failure of homogenization procedures to properly identify errors, individual sites adjusted more than the magnitude of putative warming last century, and some sites of such poor quality they should not be used, especially under a 'High Quality' banner."

What it means
Simply put, Stockwell and Stewart conclude that biases from the above-mentioned problems "have exaggerated apparent Australian warming." And when those exaggerations are properly addressed, their analysis suggests that Australia appears to have warmed to about the same degree as the rest of the world over the past century.




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