Summary: While we quake in fear at the stream of apocalyptic forecasts fed us by the news media, let’s look back at two previous forecasts about rising sea levels and melting sea ice. Perhaps we’d get better forecasts from our experts if we more often held them accountable for them.He then addresses these two apocalyptic forecasts.
Opening the NorthWest Passage to shipping
“Arctic Meltdown“, NASA press release, 27 February 2001:
… in 10 years’ time, if melting patterns change as predicted, the North-West Passage could be open to ordinary shipping for a month each summer.Well, as Fabius notes, 11 years have passed and the NASA prediction is busted.
Next, Reiss addresses James Hansen's prediction of the flooding of New York.
A flooded New York CityBob Reiss asked Hansen what would be different in a New York Scene in 2030, Part of Hansen's reply:
Bob Reiss speaks of his interview with climate scientists James Hansen (“Stormy weather“, Suzy Hansen, Salon, 23 October 2001; with 2 corrections from his 2004 book The Coming Storm: Extreme Weather And Our Terrifying Future):
“The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.” Then he said, “There will be more police cars.” Why? “Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”Reiss writes:
Twenty-two years have passed on Hanson’s 42 year forecast. How much have the seas risen around New York City? The Battery Park tidal gauge shows a rise of aprox 181 mm (7 inches). Only a massive increase in the millenia-long rate of sea level rise will flood the edge of Manhattan.See also IPCC's sea level rise projections busted (link.)
An excellent post, well worth a read can be found HERE at Fabius Maximus.
H/t Al Bradley.