Global Warming: Science Fiction Solutions to a Fictional problem
by NCTCS Secretary Anthony COX
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in response to an opinion piece in the Newcastle Herald by Kerryn Brent and Jeffrey McGee
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| Coal at Newcastle Docks awaiting export. Image credit - GJB |
But that is what man-made global warming, AGW, suggests. I
suppose we could get used to a pink/white sky and the Australian iron ore
industry would like the ocean dumping idea.
At least Kerryn Brent and Jeffrey McGee in their article on
AGW don’t agree with such alarming proposals. However they do subscribe to the
latest alarming predictions that AGW will cause temperatures to rise by 4 to 6
degrees.
No confidence at all can be given to such temperature
predictions. The reason for this is that the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate
Change [IPCC] could not even predict temperature trends from 1990 to 2012.
The first IPCC report, FAR, came out in 1990. That report
predicted a temperature increase ranging from 0.2 to 0.5C per decade depending
on the level of CO2 increase, with the highest predicted trend of 0.5C per
decade occurring with the highest rate of increase in CO2 levels.
The rate of increase in CO2 has exceeded the predicted
highest increase in CO2 made by the IPCC in 1990. However the actual
temperature increase has been either 0.14C per decade as measured by the
leading land based temperature record, HadCrut, or 0.17C per decade as measured
by the satellite service, UAH.
According to the IPCC the temperature increase should have
been at least 0.5C per decade when in fact it was 0.14-0.17C per decade, which
is less than 30% of what it should have been.
If the premier body supporting AGW is so wrong with its
original predictions why should we take its new predictions seriously?
Even the new IPCC report which has had its draft, AR5,
released, shows that the original temperature predictions were wrong. Figure 1.4
from AR5 clearly shows predictions about temperature made by the IPCC in 1990,
and indeed in all the following reports, have been above actual temperatures:
In addition there has been no temperature increase since
1998. 1998 is significant because it was the year when the world experienced a
powerful El Nino. It was also the year when world conditions probably changed
from warm and dry to cooler and wet with more storms like the Pasha Bulker
episode.
The AR5 also considers that the influence of the sun on
temperature as well as natural variation such as El Nino may play a bigger role
in determining temperature [Chapter 7, page 43].
AGW is a theory which has been around for over 20 years. All
theories must adjust to the facts. If the IPCC can now take a measured view
about other possible explanations for climate change without resorting to
unhelpful exaggerations then other commentators should as well.
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