Wednesday, 4 January 2012

Even the Warmists Don’t Believe In Global Warming

Image from Ole Humlum.
50 Scientists Eh?; Even the Warmists Don’t Believe In Global Warming
 
Drew Cline, Union leader
 
A group called Carbon Solutions New England has circulated a petition that it says was signed by 50 scientists urging the Republican presidential candidates and all other candidates for public office “to acknowledge the overwhelming balance of evidence for the underlying causes of climate change, to support appropriate responses to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases, and to develop local and statewide strategies to adapt to near-term changes in climate.”

The petition lists recent temperature and weather trends, such as warmer autumns and winters and more storms, and asserts such indisputably rigorous scientific assessments as: “These shifts in New Hampshire’s climate are clearly connected to changes in global climate.”

To respond with equal scientific authority: No, they’re not.

That is, some seem to be, others might not be, but where is the proof of a connection to human behavior? They provide none.

It is a funny little bit of propaganda made all the more humorous by its labeling as “scientists” a historian, a sociologist, two political scientists, a professor of health economics, several civil engineers, two medical doctors, and some Ph.D. candidates.

Nothing says “We are serious scientists; heed our doomsday predictions!” quite like the overstating of credentials. If they’ll overstate their credentials, then why wouldn’t they overstate the connection between recent weather events and human behavior?

Nonetheless, the petition got written up in The Hill, which lent it some undue legitimacy. Voters ought to ignore it.

Original Forbes story HERE;  Icecap rebuttal HERE.

Climate Alarmists wrong again - Peer reviewed paper

Although the "Team" of Climate Alarmists have predicted that man-made CO2-induced warming (AGW) has
  1. accelerated significantly over the 20th century;       is
  2. unprecedented with respect to the past millenium    and
  3. should be greatly amplified in the earth's polar regions
These Indian Researchers show that all three of these claims are false.


What was learned
In the words of the four Indian researchers, "the estimated surface air temperature at the core site revealed a significant warming of 2.7°C with a warming of ~0.6°C per century for the past 470 years."


What it means
Climate alarmists have long predicted that CO2-induced global warming -- which they claim has (1) accelerated significantly over the course of the 20th century and is (2) unprecedented with respect to the past millennium or more -- should be (3) greatly amplified in earth's polar regions. However, Thamban et al.'s results clearly indicate that all three of these climate-alarmist claims are false in regard to this portion of the planet's southern polar region.

Reference
Naik, S.S., Thamban, M., Laluraj, C.M., Redkar, B.L. and Chaturvedi, A. 2001. A century of climate variability in central Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, and its relation to Southern Annual Mode and El Nino Southern Oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research 115: 10.1029/2009JD013268.

Read More at CO2 Science here.

IPCC GCMs questioned - Peer reviewed paper

El nino:   Image NASA
The researchers,  Khider et alfound that although the "Team" stated that "climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations can be used to "simulate changes in ENSO variability... Khider et al's research indicated that "we don't even have the means for determining which of the similarly-divergent scenarios of current state-of-the-art climate model simulations is correct, or how close or how far from reality they each may be..."

Reference
Khider, D., Stott, L.D., Emile-Geay, J., Thunell, R. and Hammond, D.E. 2011. Assessing El Niño Southern Oscillation variability during the past millennium. Paleoceanography 26: 10.1029/2011PA002139. 



What was learned
The five researchers state that their results indicate that "the strength/frequency of ENSO, as inferred from the spread of the δ18O distributions, during the MCA and during the LIA was not statistically distinguishable and was comparable to that of the 20th century," but they write that their results suggest that "ENSO during the MCA was skewed toward stronger/more frequent La Niña than El Niño," an observation that they note is "consistent with the medieval megadroughts documented from sites in western North America." On the other hand, they note that a coral record from the central Pacific (Cobb et al., 2003) suggests that the LIA was characterized by an increase in the strength/frequency of ENSO events compared to the MCA and the 20th century. And they acknowledge that whereas the MCA was skewed toward "stronger/more frequent La Niña than El Niño" in their reconstruction, they indicate that the studies of Moy et al. (2002) and Conroy et al. (2008) "show an increase in the frequency of El Niño events during this time period."


What it means
With such discrepancies as these existing among real-world reconstructions of the effects of mean global temperature on the ratio of El Niños to La Niñas, it would appear that we don't even have the means for determining which of the similarly-divergent scenarios of current state-of-the-art climate model simulations is correct, or how close or how far from reality they each may be, which surely does not make for a solid foundation for divining what a future warmer world might be like with respect to "the leading mode of interannual climate variability in the global climate system," which sure sounds like something one would want to get right.


For non scientists like me, MCA is the Medieval Climate Anomoly refered to on this blog as the MWP or Medieval warming period.

For more details, refer to CO2 Science here.

Legless and Powerless in the Global Storms?

Will Tony Abbott leave us

Legless and Powerless in the Global Storms?

by Viv Forbes & Helpers

A print-ready copy of this issue of "Carbon Sense" can be downloaded from:

2 January 2012

Climate Alarmism has clearly peaked and is sliding into oblivion.
Their “science” has collapsed and the public is losing their alarm.
But all the toxic laws passed during the mania now have to be repealed.
That is where the danger now lurks - the danger of complacency and the seductive sirens of the vested interests.
Please pass this on.


Some at the big end of town are worried that Mr Abbott may keep his solemn promise to repeal the carbon tax. No doubt they and their smart lawyers fear losing the clever green schemes that rely on ripping off tax payers, consumers and other businesses.

Australia’s wealth and jobs have always rested on three legs – mining and farming, making and processing things, and rich foreigners; in short, resources, manufacturing, and money from tourists and investors.

The Gillard carbon tax will white-ant all three legs.

Mining and farming rely on draglines, dozers, scrapers, trains, trucks, bulk carriers, tractors, generators, pumps and machines of all kinds. All need cheap reliable energy. Their energy comes from diesel fuel or coal powered electricity. A tax on carbon will sap their energy and reduce their ability to generate jobs and national wealth.

Our processing and manufacturing industries rely on cheap electricity produced from our marvellous deposits of coal and natural gas. Greens have demonised these national assets and their carbon tax will undermine all Australian industries. Investors always look ahead. Already the threat of a carbon tax has reduced the asset value of every base load power station in Australia. Already one of the biggest, running on Victorian brown coal, is reporting financial stress and may close. We cannot run steel works, refineries or big cities on sunbeams and sea breezes.
See: http://www.theage.com.au/national/carbon-tax-puts-heat-on-loy-yang-20111219-1p2kf.html
 

Australia is remote from most of the world, and tourists must travel vast distances to get here. They need planes, trains, ships, buses and cars, all powered by carbon energy from petrol, diesel or gas. The carbon tax will strike at the heart of this industry. Harassed by the carbon footprint harpies, tourists may choose to stay home and go camping in their own backyards.

Finally, Australia is leading the world with the most onerous and widely applied carbon tax. This is already deterring the foreign investors who for generations have risked their savings to create businesses and jobs in Australia. Even now, the threat of a carbon tax is increasing capital shortage and debt stress in Australia.

There is no good news in the carbon tax story – no climate benefits, no real jobs and more costs for consumers. And it is white-anting the three legs supporting the Australian economy.

Unlike the big end of town, thinking Australians are worried that Mr Abbott may renege on his solemn promise to repeal the carbon tax.

That would really leave Australia powerless and legless in the global storms.


Saving the Suckers of the South Pacific
-    withdraw from Kyoto

Australia and New Zealand should follow Canada and immediately withdraw from the failed Kyoto Protocol.

With Canada deciding to cut and run, no country in the Americas bears Kyoto liabilities. And with the announcement by Japan that it will not renew its membership, there will be no Kyoto bunnies in Asia. It is time for the two lonely suckers in the South Pacific to also withdraw.

Kyoto has achieved nothing useful. Some countries such as Russia achieved fraudulent cuts by retrospectively choosing their base year to take advantage of the plant closures that followed the Soviet collapse. Others evaded real cuts by paying for often phantom cuts in other countries. Australia used larceny to seize carbon credits by banning regrowth clearing on private farmland. New Zealand is sacrificing their forestry industry on the Kyoto altar.

Europe's worship of Kyoto has led them into their current fiscal mess. Believing they are gods who can control the climate by demonising carbon, they have spent a fortune on green energy, carbon trading and international junkets that has exacerbated their deficits and now condemns their industry and consumers to expensive and unreliable energy.

The future for Australia and New Zealand lies around the vibrant Pacific, not in the backwater of Old Europe.  We should immediately abandon Kyoto, cease wasting money on the IPCC, abolish all climate change bureaucracies and repeal all carbon tax and trade legislation.

The money saved should be used to develop appropriate infrastructure to cope with the inevitable natural disasters whenever they occur.

SWindle Power
Wind energy is a great con:
Not Clean
Not Green
Not Cheap
Each turbine requires large amounts of steel and concrete, plus a spiderweb of roads and transmission lines to connect each turbine to the grid. And because wind energy is so dilute, large areas of countryside are plastered and disfigured by bird-killing whirling sabres. What little power is produced is unreliable, unpredictable and nowhere near the capacity of the turbine. This is an enormous waste of community resources for a lot of environmental damage and no climate benefits.
The only thing SWindle Power does efficiently is harvest subsidies from taxpayers and electricity consumers.