AGW: More Lies: Professor England and the ABC
MATT ENGLAND: Well what it’s done is it’s analysed the very first consensus projections of climate change that were made in the 1990 IPCC report, for the first report of the IPCC. And there’s been 22, 23 years since that report was compiled and it shows that the projections of that report have actually come true. We’ve sat back and watched the two decades unfold and warming has progressed at a rate consistent with those projections.
“Based on the IPCC Business as Usual scenarios, the energy-balance upwelling diffusion model with best judgement parameters yields estimates of global warming from pre-industrial times (taken to be 1765) to the year 2030 between 1.3°C and 2.8″C, with a best estimate of 2 0°C This corresponds to a predicted rise from 1990 of 0.7-1.5°C with a best estimate of 1.1C. “
Prediction: 1990 to 2030 –> 0.7 – 1.5 degrees C
T = T(1990) + 0.0275*deltaY
Assuming a linear extrapolating to May 2011:
T(2011) = T(1990) + 0.58 (maximum of 0.79 and minimum of 0.37)