All Scientists are Sceptics ~Professor Bob Carter

Whenever someone asserts that a scientific question is “settled,” they tell me immediately that they don’t understand the first thing about science. Science is never settled. Dr David Deming

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the science of climate change is the lack of any real substance in attempts to justify the hypothesis ~Professor Stewart Franks

A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf

Sunday, 26 August 2012

Science Haters and Ice Loss



Australian PM Julia Gillard this week talked about  'misogynists and nut
Skate surfaced at North Pole: 1958. Image from NAVSOURCE
jobs', ie women haters and nut cases.

What is the term then for science haters?

From Psychology Today  (link)
Why all the anger at science?

A legitimate source may be where pseudoscience masquerades as science, either because of capitalist intrigue, or simple credo.

Or, as in the pseudoscience of climate science masquerading as science, perhaps because of communist intrigue in an attempt to redistribute world wealth.

The science haters and nut cases are continually telling us that the arctic will be ice free.
1959

Was it because of global warming that the Skate (see image) was able to surface at the pole in 1958, 1959?  (Link)

As Steven Goddard points out (link)
In 2007, our friends went hysterical and told us that the Arctic would be ice free by 2008, 2010, 2012 or 2013. Since then, nothing has changed.
arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

UPDATE 
by Real Science.


NOAA Showing 28% More Ice Than The 2007 Minimum

Turquoise represents ice present in 2012 which wasn’t present at the 2007 minimum.
Red shows the opposite. There is 36% more ice than there was at the 2007 minimum.


http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/AK/2007/ims2007265_alaska.gif

Read more at Real Science 

New Paper

A paper published in Science finds summer Arctic Sea Ice extent during the Holocene Thermal Maximum 8,000 years ago was "less than half of the record low 2007 level." The paper finds a "general buildup of sea ice from ~ 6,000 years before the present" which reached a maximum during the Little Ice Age and "attained its present (year 2000) extent at 4,000 years before the present"



 

 

17 comments:

  1. A long term view always helps geoff, not even at minimum yet another two weeks to go

    http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_N_min_to_date.png

    ReplyDelete
  2. Link above broken

    http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_N_min_to_date.png

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for your input john. How about the skate eh.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Geoff, your USS Skate photo is Aug 1958

      http://www.navsource.org/archives/08/08578.htm

      Delete
    2. Thanks for pointing out that, as it says in the post above:-

      "Was it because of global warming that the Skate (see image) was able to surface at the pole in 1958, 1959?"

      (pic retitled)

      Delete
    3. The aug 1958 photo was not a north pole surfacing geoff, that did not happen until 1958, that 1958 photo does not give location

      Nuclear subs can break through up to a few metres of ice. arctic was not ice free at the time of surface as revealed in aug 1959 photo, leave the details just swap photos and you have it

      Delete
    4. Geoff, the arctic temperature remains at near zero while the ice is melting, the energy taken up by the melting ice. this is not as goddard believes evidence of little melting because temps are low, one cam photo is not the arctic.

      the winter temperatures are getting very high any of the data sets will confirm a massive melt season this year,

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

      Delete
  4. Don't forget the ice-age scare of the 1970's. Steven Goddard has had many posts, complements of the IPCC and the Nimbus satellites, which clearly shows Arctic ice "skyrocketing" from the 1974 lows to the 1979 highs. Conveniently lying by omission the warmistas start the conversation with, "Since the start of the climate satellite era in 1979...blah, blah, blah."
    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/26/actually-neurotic-little-weenies-dont-have-the-right-stuff/

    ReplyDelete
  5. Bill those are Arctic sea ice anomalies of extent not actual extent

    here is the IPCC extent data for 20th century that Goddard endorses

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-10-13.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. Bill, as you say, Steve Goddard has many posts:

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/26/earth-doomed/

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/26/the-second-coming-of-their-god/

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/25/very-little-melt-at-the-north-pole-this-summer/

    etc etc etc qed

    ReplyDelete
  7. Geoff, goddard is not being up front,
    The situation in the Arctic is bad
    here are all data graphs from many institutions,not good at all

    https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

    ReplyDelete

  8. Not for the faint hearted, but a while ago, I trawled through the IPCC
    report that mentioned the Nimbus satellites and saved some bits and
    pieces.
    It takes ages to download the report. Here's the bits and pieces.
    http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf


    7. Observed Climate Variation and Change

    Pg 216
    Graphs, 1950-59, 1967-76, 1980-89, insufficient data for surface temp anomalies
    Land air temperatures from P.D. Jones and sea surface temperatures
    from the UK Meteorological Office, (a) 1950-59, (b) 1967-76,
    (c) 1980-89

    Pg224
    7.8.2 Sea-ice Extent and Thickness
    .......
    Sea-ice conditions are now reported regularly in marine
    synoptic observations, as well as by special reconnaissance
    flights, and coastal radar. Especially importantly, satellite
    observations have been used to map sea-ice extent
    routinely since the early 1970s. The American Navy Joint
    Ice Center has produced weekly charts which have been
    digitised by NOAA. These data are summarized in Figure
    7.20 which is based on analyses carried out on a 1° latitude
    x 2.5° longitude grid. Sea-ice is defined to be present when
    its concentration exceeds 10% (Ropelewski, 1983). Since
    about 1976 the areal extent of sea-ice in the Northern
    Hemisphere has varied about a constant climatological
    level but in 1972-1975 sea-ice extent was significantly less.
    In the Southern Hemisphere since about 1981, sea-ice
    extent has also varied about a constant level. Between 1973
    and 1980 there were periods of several years when
    Southern Hemisphere sea-ice extent was either appreciably
    more than or less than that typical in the 1980s.

    Continued.....

    ReplyDelete
  9. Part 2


    7. Observed Climate Variation and Change
    Pg 225
    Gloersen and Campbell (1988) have analysed the
    Scanning Multi-channel (dual polarization) Microwave
    Radiometer data from the Nimbus 7 satellite from 1978
    1987 They find little change in total global ice area but a
    significant decrease of open water within the ice Their
    time series is short, and it is uncertain whether the decrease
    is real
    Sea-ice thickness is an important parameter but it is
    much more difficult to measure than sea-ice extent The
    heat flux from the underlying ocean into the atmosphere
    depends on sea-ice thickness Trends in thickness over the
    Arctic Ocean as a whole could be a sensitive indicator of
    global warming The only practical method of making
    extensive measurements is by upward-looking sonar from
    submarines Apart from a very recent deployment of
    moorings, data gathering has been carried out on voyages
    by military submarines In the past repeated tracks carried
    out in summer have either found no change in mean
    thickness (Wadhams 1989) or variations that can be
    ascribed to interannual variability in summer ice limits and
    ice concentration (McLaren 1989) Recently however,
    Wadhams (1990) found a 15% or larger decrease in mean
    sea-ice thickness between October 1976 and May 1987
    over a large region north of Greenland. Lack of a
    continuous set of observations makes it impossible to
    assess whether the change is part of a long term trend. In
    the Antarctic no measurements of thickness variability
    exist and so far only one geographically extensive set of
    sea-ice thickness data is available (Wadhams et al 1987)

    Pg 222-223
    7.7 Sub-Surface Ocean Temperature and Salinity
    Variations
    The sub-surface ocean data base is now just becoming
    sufficient for climate change studies in the North Atlantic
    and North Pacific basins to be carried out. A few, long,
    local time series of sub-surface measurements exist,
    sufficient to alert the scientific community to emerging
    evidence of decadal scale temperature variability in the
    Atlantic Ocean. Beginning about 1968, a fresh, cold water
    mass with its origins in the Arctic Ocean appears to have
    circulated around the sub-Arctic gyre of the North Atlantic
    Ocean This event has been described by Dickson et al
    (1988) as the Great Salinity Anomaly Some of this cold,
    fresh water penetrated to the deep waters of the North
    Atlantic (Brewer et al, 1983) The marked cool anomalies
    in the North Atlantic SST shown in Figure 7.13 for 1967-
    76 partly reflect this event
    Recently, Levitus (1989a, b, c d) has carried out a major
    study of changes of sub-surface temperature and salinity of
    the North Atlantic Ocean between 1955-59 and 1970-74
    1955-59 was near the end of a very warm period of North
    Atlantic surface waters, but by 1970-74 the subsequent
    cool period was well developed (Figure 7.13) Cooler water
    extended from near the sea surface to 1400m depth in the
    subtropical gyre O0-50°N) Beneath the subtropical gyre, a
    warming occurred between the two periods North of this
    gyre there was an increase in the temperature and salinity)
    of the western sub arctic gyre The density changes
    associated with these changes in temperature and salinity
    indicate that the transport of the Gulf Stream may have
    decreased between the two periods. Temperature difference
    fields along 24.5°N and 36.5°N presented by Roemmich
    and Wunsch (1984) based on data gathered during 1981
    and the late 1950s, are consistent with these ideas


    Continued......

    ReplyDelete
  10. Part 3

    Pg 225
    7.8.3 Land Ice (Mountain Glaciers)
    Measurements of glacial ice volume and mass balance are
    more informative about climatic change than those of the
    extent of glacial ice, but they are considerably scarcer. Ice
    volume can be determined from transects of bedrock and
    ice surface elevation using airborne radio-echo sounding
    measurements Mass balance studies performed by
    measuring winter accumulation and summer ablation are
    slow and approximate, though widely used Section 9
    discusses changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice-caps
    so attention is confined here to mountain glaciers
    A substantial, but not continuous, recession of mountain
    glaciers has taken place almost everywhere since the latter
    half of the nineteenth century (Grove, 1988) This
    conclusion is based on a combination of mass balance
    analyses and changes in glacial terminus positions, mostly
    the latter The recession is shown in Figure 7 2, evidence
    for glacial retreat is found in the Alps, Scandinavia
    Iceland, the Canadian Rockies, Alaska, Central Asia, the
    Himalayas, on the Equator, in tropical South America, New
    Guinea, New Zealand, Patagonia, the sub Antarctic islands
    and the Antarctic Peninsula (Grove 1988) The rate of
    recession appears to have been generally largest between
    about 1920 and 1960.

    Pg 233
    Conclusions
    .....
    Natural climate variations have occurred since the end of
    the last glaciation The Little Ice Age in particular
    invoked global climate changes of comparable magnitude
    to the warming of the last century It is possible that some
    of the warming since the nineteenth century may reflect the
    cessation of Little Ice Age conditions The rather rapid
    changes in global temperature seen around 1920 -1940 are
    very likely to have had a mainly natural origin. Thus a
    better understanding of past variations is essential if we are
    to estimate reliably the extent to which the warming over
    the last century, and future warming, is the result of an
    increase of greenhouse gases

    Sea Level Rise
    Pg 263
    9.3 Has Sea Level Been Rising Over the Last 100
    Years?
    It is highly likely that global-mean sea level (MSL) has
    been rising This is the general conclusion of no fewer than
    13 studies of MSL change over various periods during the
    last 100 years (Table 9 1) The estimates range from about
    0 5mm/yr to 3 Omm/yr, with most lying in the range 1 0-
    2 Omm/yr

    ReplyDelete
  11. John, you're beating it up, the early August Arctic storms as put by Julienne Stroeve of NSIDC:

    -Storm area 1 million square kilometers

    -Wave height of 2 to 3 meters broke apart ice into smaller chunks, increasing surface area and thus melting

    -Storm mixed fresh water at surface (from melted ice) with deeper warmer saltier water from below increasing melting rate

    -Storm agitated water to depths of 500 meters (where water is much warmer) bringing it to surface increasing melt rate

    -Low pressure of storm center sucked up water level by 0.3 meters, causing warm water to flow into Arctic Ocean from Pacific Ocean via Bering Strait and from Atlantic Ocean, increasing melting

    -Storm rotation (counterclockwise) spread out ice over larger area and pushed ice towards open ocean (on Atlantic Ocean side)

    DMI temperature data shows the Arctic summer to be pretty much below average, and if you choose to check, it has been that way since 2001.

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php




    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bill
      "DMI temperature data shows the Arctic summer to be pretty much below average, and if you choose to check, it has been that way since 2001."


      see my post above..........
      john byattAugust 27, 2012 6:00 PM

      Delete
  12. Bill The IPCC AR4 2007 gives us the science up to early 2006, it has moved on from there

    Re Julienne Stroeve

    WUWT Comments, one of a few

    Julienne Stroeve says:
    August 27, 2012 at 9:48 am
    Anthony I think you are missing a key point, it doesn’t matter too much what the weather does anymore. Whether you have persistent unusually high pressure over the Beaufort coupled with low pressure over Eurasia such as in 2007, or this summer that didn’t have as favorable weather as in 2007, but had an early August storm, the ice cover continues to be anomalously low in summer. The ice is thinner than it was 20-50 years ago, so that it melts out more easily in summer.

    ReplyDelete





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