By Dr Vincent Gray  Expert IPCC Reviewer

APRIL 29th 2012


One of my favourite predictions of the future is the following:

A democracy cannot survive as a permanent form of government. It can last only until its citizens discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority (who vote) will vote for those candidates promising the greatest benefits from the public purse, with the result that a democracy will always collapse from loose fiscal policies, always followed by a dictatorship.
The average age of the world's greatest democratic nations has been 200 years.
Each has been through the following sequence: 

From bondage to spiritual faith.
From faith to great courage.
From courage to liberty.
From liberty to abundance.
From abundance to complacency.
From complacency to selfishness.
From selfishness to apathy.
From apathy to dependency.
And from dependency back again into bondage.

Can we escape from this fate?

This is from a letter to an American friend by Lord Thomas Babington Macaulay in 1857.

He could not have known it but a closely similar sequence followed in continental Europe immediately after the "selfishness" which led to the First World War and led to the collapse of European economies. The dictatorship that emerged in Italy was called "Fascism. and this name can be applied to the others. But in Germany it may be "Nazism" and in Russia "Stalinism" which is their local form of Communism.

The sequence described by Macaulay has re-emerged and the last stages are taking pace before our eyes. Western Powers are failing under a load of debt, compounded of abandonment of economic progress for enrichment of the economy while the upper classes become richer. The emerging dictatorship is now to be applied on a global scale and much of the beginnings of the programme have already been applied. Many of us already have to promote  "conservation", "sustainability",  "biodiversity", and we reduce "emissions", promote windmills, solar panels, bicycle transport and saving "endangered species".  So-called "climate science" dominates our academic research budgets.

Democracy has been destroyed by takeover of the media, by advertisers and public relations "consultants" and "lobbyists", by making elections increasingly expensive to enter and distorting the rules so that they are a contest between individuals and not between policies.

The next stages are now emerging.

The British Royal Society has provided their programme here..

They place particular emphasis on the  increasing world population. They admit the fact that in western countries the population is falling and most of the increase comes from Africa and parts of India, so reduction is a matter of promoting contraception and empowering women in undeveloped countries, which they do actually recommend.

However, their "attack on poverty" does not include reducing the scandalous income disparity in western countries which currently cause poverty in these countries.  They concentrate on poverty in developing countries where they make some useful suggestions, but do not change the current trend which changes people into permanent social welfare beneficiaries and does nothing to provide jobs for the children that have been "saved" when  they mature.

They peddle the  myth that the ocean is being acidified. The oceans are firmly alkaline and are certain to remain so. Parts of the ocean actually emit carbon dioxide and so are already saturated and it does not seem to harm any ocean organisms. Slight expansion of these regions and evolution would cope with any increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

They go on about water supply, but do not understand that it is a matter of effective redistribution of the excess water which arrives somewhere every day from the heavens.

Their only interest in energy is in cutting carbon emissions or capturing them. No mention of frakking or the desirability of nuclear power. They want lots of biofuels and admit they put  up the price of food, but hope they will be grown on marginal land.

All this is comparatively mild compared with the guru recently interviewed by Kim Hill and appearing in the Auckland Writers and readers week, Chanran Nair, who has written a book called "Consumptionomics" and has a website Here.

Consumptionomics argues that the blinkered conventional view needs to be replaced by a more rational approach to such challenges. If Asians were to achieve consumption levels taken for granted in the West the results would be environmentally catastrophic across the globe. Needless to say, it would also have significant geopolitical impacts as nations scramble for diminishing resources. Asian governments and leaders find themselves with a dilemma. The solutions will entail making sensitive political choices and adopting certain forms of government to effect a fundamental change of direction. If Asia is willing to take on this responsibility it will help to save the planet whilst reshaping capitalism.

He purports to be an economist, and he insists we must all follow his orders. They include huge prices for his idea of environmental restoration particularly the hidden cost of roads. He would drastically ration the permission to  possess a car, presumably confined to the rich and beautiful..

The Internet commentators love this book which can be obtained on Kindle for $10.  It is approved by the Lee Kuan Yew Foundation and there are already the beginnings of political movements ready to impose these restrictions on us all in Europe and in the US. Singapore, Russia  China and India are being pressurized to adopt its precepts, which could well be adopted by the United Nations in response to the insoluble debt problems of Western countries and the supposed pressure on "resources from the economic revival of Asia, South America  and Africa.
So Macaulay is once more vindicated. His last plea "Can We Escape" must exercise all those of us who really care for freedom, democracy, and honest science.

Vincent Gray
Wellington 6035

"To kill an error is as good a service as, and sometimes better than, the establishing of a new truth or fact" ~ Charles Darwin


  1. My god what xxxxx you spew. Especially considering your own deep ties to the coal industry. Furthermore, just the very style with which you write reeks of an egotistical narcissist. Yeah, we got it, you are a big expert and we are supposed to listen to you because an interest group is paying you big money to spew garbage at us. Climb back in your hole. There are serious issues here and fools like you trivialize them and obfuscate the issues.

    1. You anonymous fool, I have deleted your expletivess.

      Yes, Vincent had ties to the coal industry, but also many other industries.

      The very suspect Wikipedia in it's entry has this:

      He has had a long scientific career in the UK, France, Canada and China working on petroleum, plastics, gelatin, timber, paint, adhesives and adhesion, coal, and building materials with well over 100 scientific and technical articles, patents and chapters in books. In New Zealand, he was the first Director of Building Research and later, Chief Chemist of the Coal Research Association. After retirement...

      but you yellow anonymous say...

      because an interest group is paying you big money to spew garbage at us....

      What part of retirement don't you understand, you anonylous cretin? And how many scientists, after having their tongues tied because they are paid by governments associated with the IPCC/Maurice Strong/communist con, spill the beans when free to speak?

      Anonymous, There are serious issues here and fools like you to stupid to examine and evaluate the science that exposes the AGW hoax.


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