|"They are real -- and they're spectacular."|
In discussing the recent release of some 5,000 Climategate e-mails, blogger Anthony Watts uses the clever headline "They are real -- and they're spectacular." He credits Jerry Seinfeld as the source. Following his example, I choose the headline "Fake! Fake! Fake! Fake!" -- also taken from a Seinfeld episode -- in discussing the surface temperatures generally reported for the latter part of the 20th century; they form the science basis for prosperity-killing international climate policy.Fred says that the most reported temperatures are from land based thermometers whereas oceans comprise 71% of the earth's surface. The recent BEST temperatures (see HERE and HERE) were also only land-based from "poorly situated" weather stations.
Here I am using the word "fake" as an adjective, and not as a verb. I mean to say that the scientific conclusions derived from such temperatures are not real, but I don't imply that the values themselves have been purposefully altered or adjusted. We simply don't have any information to support such an accusation.
While we can applaud the fact that the BEST results agree with other analyses of weather station data, we still need to explain why they don't agree with atmospheric trends that are close to zero, or with ocean data that show no appreciable warming.Mr Singer writes: "But if there is no warming between 1978 and 2000, then IPCC's case collapses -- and so do all policies built on the IPCC conclusion."
As a first step, the BEST data are ideally suited for a number of internal checks. For example, one would like to see if the number of stations changed appreciably between 1970 and 2000, and if their "demographics" changed -- which might lead to the formation of artificial trends.
There are many other such tests that can be performed. They might help us discover why land surface data disagree with all other data; thereby, we may get a better handle on whether the planet is really warming. We note here that the BEST results do not show any warming trend in the 21st century -- even though carbon dioxide levels have been rising more rapidly than before.