|Image: Bureau of Meteorology|
Neutral conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, though a return to La Niña towards the end of 2011 cannot be ruled out. Trends over the past fortnight include further cooling of the central Pacific Ocean, persistent positive Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values and stronger than normal trade winds. However, cloud patterns are currently close to normal, and all indicators remain well short of the strong La Niña conditions evident at the same time last year.How long will we have to wait until we know? The BOM says "end of 2011.." but wait!
The majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO predict that neutral conditions are likely to continue into the southern spring. While no models suggest El Niño conditions are likely, half of the models predict further cooling over the coming season and into the southern summer.
It’s worth noting that since 1900, about half of all La Niña events re-emerged in the second year. Further cooling of the central Pacific Ocean coupled with persistent positive SOI values in the next few months would further increase the chance of a La Niña event at the end of 2011.
Well, until 10th September, when Scott Sistek in KOMOnews reports:
La Nina: 'I'm baaaaaack. Did you miss me?'Scott graduated from the UW in 1994 with a degree in Atmospheric Sciences and has been producing weather reports for broadcast and on the Web ever since.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center officially upgraded our La Nina Watch to a La Nina Advisory, which in essence means La Nina conditions are forecast to return for the (US) fall (Autumn) and winter.Today, the East coast of Australia has been hit with icy wintery blasts due to a low off the coast. (See image.)
Forecasts through the summer had shown moderating ocean temperatures and a return to "neutral" conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina. By the way, those winters tend to run the gamut of conditions) and the expectation was that we would stay neutral through this winter.
How is the Global Temperature going? Lubos Motl has looked at the RSS AMSU data and posts:
So, are we heading for another Little Ice Age? Salomon Kroonenberg, a professor of Geology at Delft University of Technology is quoted in the China Daily. Kroonenburg has published a book -The Human Dimension: the Earth in Ten Thousand Years from Now. In it he challenges Gore's "alarmist rhetoric".
Jan-Aug: 2011 second coldest in this century According to RSS AMSU, the first 8 months were the 2nd coldest January-August period in this century so far (second among 11 candidate years).
Kroonenberg argues that climate change has been happening since antiquity and humans are known to have survived "two ice ages, with bear skins and ice axes".
(H/T to The New Nostradamus who comments
"We're smart enough to evolve flexible solutions" to deal with a devastating deluge should the glaciers melt and inundate the earth, Kroonenberg suggests.But more importantly, he insists that reducing carbon footprints would not necessarily make a difference to the future of the world.
Urging his audience to see things in terms of geological time, (10,000 years at a stretch), the geologist contends that we are, in fact, living at the peak of summer between ice ages, and, if the cyclical rhythm of climate change is anything to go by, we should be preparing for a "little ice age" like the one experienced between 1350 and 1800.
Often labeled a "climate skeptic" by the anti-CO2-emissions lobby, and criticized for his indifference to the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, in which parliaments of 55 countries decided to cut down on greenhouse emissions, Kroonenberg prefers to call himself a climate relativist. He doesn't consider CO2 emissions "an insurmountable problem" in the context of nature changing and adjusting itself as a continuous process.
"I don't deny climate has been warming and I also do not deny that humankind has emitted large quantities of CO2. I only challenge the importance of that for climate change.
Kroonenberg is spot on when he describes the arrogance of the warmist doomsday prophets. Fortunately, recent polls show that ordinary people are increasingly sharing his view. That´s why there is hope that decision makers and environmentalists before long will again begin to focus on fighting real pollution.